World Crude Oil 2005 - 2021(Data)

“By 2019 [crude oil] production will be down to 90% of peak.” Kenneth Deffeyes, Beyond Oil, 2004, p.7

Year..... Production mb/d (EIA averages)
2005..... 73.7 (peak)
2006..... 73.7
2007......73.6
2008..... 73.4
2009..... 73.3
2010..... 73.0
2011......72.6
2012..... 72.2___________ During 2012 present consumption
2013..... 71.5___________ bumps up against natural production limits.
2014..... 70.8
2015......70.1
2016..... 69.3
2017..... 68.4
2018..... 67.4
2019......66.4 (10% down)
2020..... 65.2
2021......63.8

This is a geological model and shows the maximum possible oil production. The earth will yield no more. But it does not take into account political-economic or other above-ground factors. Actual production figures could be lower, but not greater than the figures shown.

Bumpy Plateau Ends In 2012. Present production is 71.847 mb/d. (EIA 5 month average) This level will hit the decline curve during year 2012. Production will then begin to fall off. There are two more possibilities. If economic recovery begins now and world consumption begins to head back up, we could bump up against the limit as early as 2010 or 2011. The curve sets the bounds. We can fall under it, but not go beyond it. If demand destruction continues due to above-ground factors, again we hit the limits earlier than 2012, and in this case the world might never again produce as much oil as it otherwise would have.

Could alternative fuels push the 2012 target date farther into the future? No. These are not conventional oil that is pumped out of the ground, and their low EROEI and low energy content will not boost the economy.
Are there any factors that could bring the target date nearer? Yes. The present decline in demand (which is also a decline in production) could continue its downward trend, and we would meet up with limits sooner thanwould otherwise be the case.

World will bump up against geologic limits during 2012, or sooner if consumption starts to pick up again, or if demand continues to decline. This is for world production. The U.S. may be different because of declines in world exports.

Export Declines. This will be a big factor for the US and the other OECD countries, and will bring on our own downturn sooner. It is having some effect right now. It will definitely have a much larger effect getting on toward 2020.

What Happens In 2012? Oil and gas prices will begin to step up to higher levels. A new wave of foreclosures, bank failures, bankruptcies, unemployment, will begin; and another L step down.

“Standard of Living “ is often (but not always) measured by money spent per head. Economists acknowledge that this is a poor measure of welfare - especially during these times of economic turmoil when fiat money becomes unable to purchase basic necessities. Since the consumption of energy is a prerequisite for all economic activity, “energy consumption” instead of money consumption is a more accurate long term metric for measuring welfare.
-Dr. Richard Duncan.
_______________________________________________
"Coming events cast their shadows before". -Thomas Carlyle
___
Contact: Blake50000@kconline.com