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Monday, August 17, 2009
Saturday, August 15, 2009
World Crude Oil 2005 - 2021(Data)
“By 2019 [crude oil] production will be down to 90% of peak.” Kenneth Deffeyes, Beyond Oil, 2004, p.7
Year..... Production mb/d (EIA averages)
2005..... 73.7 (peak)
2006..... 73.7
2007......73.6
2008..... 73.4
2009..... 73.3
2010..... 73.0
2011......72.6
2012..... 72.2___________ During 2012 present consumption
2013..... 71.5___________ bumps up against natural production limits.
2014..... 70.8
2015......70.1
2016..... 69.3
2017..... 68.4
2018..... 67.4
2019......66.4 (10% down)
2020..... 65.2
2021......63.8
This is a geological model and shows the maximum possible oil production. The earth will yield no more. But it does not take into account political-economic or other above-ground factors. Actual production figures could be lower, but not greater than the figures shown.
Bumpy Plateau Ends In 2012. Present production is 71.847 mb/d. (EIA 5 month average) This level will hit the decline curve during year 2012. Production will then begin to fall off. There are two more possibilities. If economic recovery begins now and world consumption begins to head back up, we could bump up against the limit as early as 2010 or 2011. The curve sets the bounds. We can fall under it, but not go beyond it. If demand destruction continues due to above-ground factors, again we hit the limits earlier than 2012, and in this case the world might never again produce as much oil as it otherwise would have.
Could alternative fuels push the 2012 target date farther into the future? No. These are not conventional oil that is pumped out of the ground, and their low EROEI and low energy content will not boost the economy.
Are there any factors that could bring the target date nearer? Yes. The present decline in demand (which is also a decline in production) could continue its downward trend, and we would meet up with limits sooner thanwould otherwise be the case.
World will bump up against geologic limits during 2012, or sooner if consumption starts to pick up again, or if demand continues to decline. This is for world production. The U.S. may be different because of declines in world exports.
Export Declines. This will be a big factor for the US and the other OECD countries, and will bring on our own downturn sooner. It is having some effect right now. It will definitely have a much larger effect getting on toward 2020.
What Happens In 2012? Oil and gas prices will begin to step up to higher levels. A new wave of foreclosures, bank failures, bankruptcies, unemployment, will begin; and another L step down.
“Standard of Living “ is often (but not always) measured by money spent per head. Economists acknowledge that this is a poor measure of welfare - especially during these times of economic turmoil when fiat money becomes unable to purchase basic necessities. Since the consumption of energy is a prerequisite for all economic activity, “energy consumption” instead of money consumption is a more accurate long term metric for measuring welfare.
-Dr. Richard Duncan.
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"Coming events cast their shadows before". -Thomas Carlyle
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Contact: Blake50000@kconline.com
Friday, August 14, 2009
BLOGS
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Big News From the EIA!
On August 12, 2009 the U.S Energy Information Administration/International Petroleum Monthly released figures showing 2005 as the peak year for crude + condensate. This is big news. Prior to this the IPM showed 2008 as the peak year.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html
Select 1.1d
Here are the revised figures. (annual averages) in Millions of barrels per day.
2005: 73.728
2006: 73.446
2007: 72.989
2008: 73.709
2009: 71.847 (First 5 months average)
2008 is still the year for the highest monthly production, but that is just a bump in the bumpy plateau. Annual averages are the important figures.
The world is now four years post-peak! Of course a few of us have maintained all along that 2005 was the peak.
All the Best, CodeRed
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EXPORTS... Posted 27 September, 2009
The above graph of World Oil Production is fixed; it does not change. All countries, however, will not be affected equally. The amount of oil available to a particular country depends upon whether it is a net importer, or a net exporter. The U.S. is a net importer, and has been for more than 60 years. For exporting countries, as oil becomes scarcer, less and less is available for exports which causes all imports to drop.
The Export Land Model (ELM) was developed by Jeffrey Brown (westexas onThe Oil Drum), an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas area, and Sam Foucher (Khebab). According to ELM, oil exports from producing countries depend upon 1. The amount of oil they produce, and 2. Their own domestic consumption. As their domestic consumption grows year by year, their net exports decrease.
Today, only 14 out 54 oil producing countries in the world continue to increase production, while 30 are definitely past their peak, and the remaining 10 have flat or declining production. (BP Statistical Review of World Energy.) About 15 net exporters have slipped from being exporters to importers in the past 20 years. All of them showed an export rate in excess of their production decline rate. The top five net exporters in 2006 (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran, and the UAE) consumed about 25% of their total liquids production. Many of those are at fairly advanced stages of depletion. If domestic consumption increases fast enough, an exporter can become an importer even as their own production increases. Jeffrey Brown says he is now seeing accelerating export declines in practically every country he has studied.
There is just no way to put a positive spin on this. The implications are dire. By 2019 the top five exporters will already have shipped about 80% of their post-2005 oil exports. It is essential that the US begin shifting over to a low fossil fuel economy without delay.
CodeRed
____________________________________________________________________
Big News From the EIA!
On August 12, 2009 the U.S Energy Information Administration/International Petroleum Monthly released figures showing 2005 as the peak year for crude + condensate. This is big news. Prior to this the IPM showed 2008 as the peak year.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html
Select 1.1d
Here are the revised figures. (annual averages) in Millions of barrels per day.
2005: 73.728
2006: 73.446
2007: 72.989
2008: 73.709
2009: 71.847 (First 5 months average)
2008 is still the year for the highest monthly production, but that is just a bump in the bumpy plateau. Annual averages are the important figures.
The world is now four years post-peak! Of course a few of us have maintained all along that 2005 was the peak.
All the Best, CodeRed
____________________________________________________________________
EXPORTS... Posted 27 September, 2009
The above graph of World Oil Production is fixed; it does not change. All countries, however, will not be affected equally. The amount of oil available to a particular country depends upon whether it is a net importer, or a net exporter. The U.S. is a net importer, and has been for more than 60 years. For exporting countries, as oil becomes scarcer, less and less is available for exports which causes all imports to drop.
The Export Land Model (ELM) was developed by Jeffrey Brown (westexas onThe Oil Drum), an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas area, and Sam Foucher (Khebab). According to ELM, oil exports from producing countries depend upon 1. The amount of oil they produce, and 2. Their own domestic consumption. As their domestic consumption grows year by year, their net exports decrease.
Today, only 14 out 54 oil producing countries in the world continue to increase production, while 30 are definitely past their peak, and the remaining 10 have flat or declining production. (BP Statistical Review of World Energy.) About 15 net exporters have slipped from being exporters to importers in the past 20 years. All of them showed an export rate in excess of their production decline rate. The top five net exporters in 2006 (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran, and the UAE) consumed about 25% of their total liquids production. Many of those are at fairly advanced stages of depletion. If domestic consumption increases fast enough, an exporter can become an importer even as their own production increases. Jeffrey Brown says he is now seeing accelerating export declines in practically every country he has studied.
There is just no way to put a positive spin on this. The implications are dire. By 2019 the top five exporters will already have shipped about 80% of their post-2005 oil exports. It is essential that the US begin shifting over to a low fossil fuel economy without delay.
CodeRed
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